The hottest Shagang scrap soared by 330, and the s

2022-08-15
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Shagang scrap soared 330 scrap boss waiting for "new high"

scorching sun, weak demand, abnormal steel market. Under the influence of power and production restrictions in many places in Hebei, environmental protection and other factors, the current steel price rise continues in recent days. It is worth mentioning that in addition to the recent rise of futures and steel mills, Tangshan billet, the "weather vane of the steel market", also continued to rise. Recently, the mainstream manufacturer Pu billet has increased by 40 yuan, so far Tangshan billet stands at the 3900 mark. Related to this is that with the high pressure of environmental protection and the high profits of steel mills, it should be said that steel rises under strict environmental protection, supporting the rise of the whole market, and indirectly guiding the demand of scrap market to continue to improve. The domestic scrap market continues to rise, and "waste" complements each other

since the end of July, the domestic scrap market has shown a step-by-step rise. Take Jiangsu as an example: the recent weather vane large-scale steel enterprises in East China - Shagang once derailed the scrap market due to the early "steel slag incident", and the arrival of scrap continued to be less than expected. Seeing this situation, Shagang continued to significantly chase up the rise of step track scrap. After that, merchants no longer waited for new highs in shipments, and the arrival of scrap gradually improved (see Figure 1). However, small and medium-sized scrap enterprises in the province continued to raise prices to make up for the shortage of arrival, For example, Lianyungang Binxin, Dongnan, Jinhong, xinsanzhou, Hongtai, Danuo, Xicheng and Longteng have risen again recently. In particular, Zhangjiagang Yonggang took the lead in raising blast furnace materials. Now it is punching 2780, punching 2740, punching 2960, punching 2940 and punching 2900; Steel bar cutting 2960 includes tax, embracing high-quality resources, which also led to the wind vane Shagang's rescheduling. Recently, it raised the tone of 150 to maintain the current good arrival situation and stabilize the military morale. As of the press release, Zhangjiagang Shagang scrap steel has increased by as much as two weeks

According to statistics on the 7th, a major steel enterprise in East China unloaded 9801.32 tons yesterday, an increase of 5.3% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. It is understood that the current arrival and self-produced scrap barely meet the daily consumption. Steel mills generally report that the arrival of scrap is less than expected, and it is in a state of short supply and consumption of its own low inventory

at present, most of the high-temperature and hot weather around the country, and the available resources of scrap steel have fallen sharply. Scrap dealers mostly wait for new highs with reluctance to sell and dispose. At the same time, many steel plants in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other places have frequent environmental power and production restrictions, and the main objects of production restrictions are mainly blast furnace manufacturers, which also leads to insufficient hot metal supply and increased use of scrap as an alternative utility resource. Especially when the steel profits are good, the steel plants are not only shown in (1) mechanical process structure: the purchase demand is greatly increased, the purchase quotation is rising, and their payment methods are also being greatly improved, Satisfy customers' psychology of being safe in their pockets

on the whole, there are many factors affecting the scrap market at present, mainly reflected in:

since January and August, the domestic steel market has been rising continuously

after the factory price of construction steel of Shagang, an independent steel guide enterprise, increased by 100 yuan/ton in the first ten days, it directly affected the trend of scrap market. Especially in the environment of limited production and electricity, the overall inventory of finished materials has decreased periodically. Most steel mills have started the mode of "increasing production with waste". In the words of traders, "the price of finished materials has increased, and I have made money. As a raw material for steelmaking, I should rise in love and reason. Let's drink some soup"

2. Environmental protection hoop mantra, high-temperature sweat steaming mode, processing and distribution base operations are limited, and available resources are reduced

at present, due to the influence of environmental protection and high temperature weather factors, most domestic dock bases are on holiday and closed, resulting in a shortage of market resources, and the receipt of goods at many sites is interrupted and the supply of goods is tightened. You should know that the changes in the resources available in the scrap market have an increasing impact on the future market. The scarcity of goods continues to rise, which is the same as scrap

3. In terms of cost, although the price of scrap steel rises, the profit of electric arc furnace steelmaking is still high, and the increase in production continues

as of the survey date, 53 independent EAF steel mills across the country have been surveyed, with an average operating rate of 69.99%, down 0.87% from last week; The capacity utilization rate was 67.50%, down 0.1% from last week. Due to the high profit margin, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnace continue to improve, but at the same time, July and August are also the peak season for steel plant maintenance. Driven by higher profits, the electric arc furnace steel plant will continue to increase production in the later stage

from the perspective of cost, up to now, the production cost of independent electric arc furnaces in East China is estimated to be about 3600-3650 yuan/ton (including tax) according to 50% of the hot metal ratio of electric furnaces, and the profit per ton of steel in the current period is yuan/ton. Some steel mills feed back that the current profit per ton of steel in electric furnaces is yuan/ton, and the long flow path exceeds 1100 yuan/ton/ton. In Central China, South China and southwest China, the profit per ton of electric arc furnace steel is relatively high, with some as high as yuan/ton. Higher profit per ton of steel makes steel mills maintain high production enthusiasm. Scrap prices have not squeezed the profits of electric arc furnaces, and there will still be room for further increase in capacity utilization, supporting the demand for scrap

it is worth mentioning that on July 25, Luo Tiejun, inspector of the raw materials department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at the expanded meeting of the executive director of the China Iron and steel industry association that promoting the transformation from "long process" steelmaking to "short process" will further reduce the impact of the steel industry on the atmospheric environment. The state will study relevant policies and measures to support the development of electric furnace steel, so as to effectively improve the market competitiveness of electric furnace enterprises. Obviously, domestic steel enterprises also see the future of the development of electric furnace steel. In July alone, four steel mills announced the capacity replacement plan of converter to electric furnace, and planned to build six electric furnaces with a capacity of 4.07 million tons

4. The rising cost of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal and coke is conducive to the value orientation of scrap steel

the recent devaluation of the RMB and the fact that commodities have become safe haven properties have led to optimistic price performance. Because the RMB exchange rate fell, commodities denominated in RMB rose passively. Last night, the 62% general index rose by $1.50, and the external market was also rising. Today, the spot price of imported ore port rose by yuan/ton, and now the 62% Newman powder mine in Qingdao port is 515 yuan/ton. There is no doubt that the recent high cost of iron ore will further benefit the value orientation of scrap steel. In addition, the coke CPLD (complex programmable logic device) complex programmable logic device market is affected by the rising futures and low inventory. The coking manufacturers are willing to increase prices. The mainstream has increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the downstream steel enterprises also generally accept it. At present, the bullish mentality in the market is dominant, and traders tend to be reluctant to sell, and the coke price will continue to rise

to sum up, in view of the current low inventory of scrap steel in major domestic scrap mills, the enthusiasm of steel mills to produce has greatly increased driven by profits. On the one hand, futures continue to rise, which is conducive to the "waste" spot. In addition, high temperature and rainy weather affect scrap steel processing, and the supply of scrap steel has decreased correspondingly. At present, the price gap between North and South steel enterprises is gradually obvious, and local steel mills have also begun to gradually implement the plan of raising prices to seize high-quality scrap resources, The scrap market may continue to rise slightly in the short term

but it is worth warning: the risk is rising. At present, the scrap price is already at a high level, and everything in the steel market is always going well, showing subtle changes. Limiting production has supported the steel price to a certain extent, which does not mean that it will rise all the way, and it will inevitably show a certain phased decline with the futures market. At that time, the profits of steel enterprises will be limited, and August is the peak season for steel plant maintenance, It is bound to limit the production and use of high priced raw material scrap, and make a rational correction. It is suggested that businesses should not wait for new high tension testing machines at this time. The speed control and displacement control principle are basically similar. It is not appropriate to store goods at high levels at this time and bet on the next limit. It is the best policy to implement the fast in and fast out strategy in the expectation of price rise and to realize the safety strategy of falling bags

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