In February, the international crude oil first sup

2022-08-08
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In February, the international crude oil first fell and then rose, with a strong PE trend

in February, the international crude oil first fell and then rose. In the first half of the month, the international crude oil fell rapidly, once falling by $26/barrel, below the low point in January, hitting a new low since 2004. In the second half of the month, the international crude oil price surged

at the closed door meeting in Doha in mid February, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar agreed to freeze oil production at the level of January and called on other oil producing countries to abide by the agreement. As there are still many technical barriers to the expansion of lithium battery copper foil production capacity in the agreements reached by oil producing countries, the negotiations on the frozen production agreement will continue around mid March. The most uncertain factor in the current production freeze agreement is Iran. Iran's sanctions have just ended in January, and there is a need to increase crude oil production and exports. The freezing of production is unfair to Iran, and there is a great risk that Iran will not comply with the agreement

freezing production is difficult to drive the rise of crude oil in the short term. On the one hand, it remains to be seen whether the agreement can be observed. On the other hand, at present, crude oil is still in control of opportunities. Supply exceeds demand, and freezing production is far from enough. Oil producing countries need to take more effective measures. The current sharp rise in international crude oil inventories also has a negative impact on the trend of crude oil, but oil producing countries have made efforts to stabilize crude oil prices, It is difficult for crude oil prices to fall below $30/barrel again. According to the data released by the US energy information administration, as of the week of February 26, the US crude oil inventory was 5179.8 million barrels, the total US gasoline inventory was 254.99 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory was 163.6 million barrels. Crude oil inventory was 16.6% higher than the same period last year, gasoline inventory was 6.2% higher than the same period last year, and distillate oil inventory was 33% higher than the same period last year. Crude oil inventory was the highest level in the same period in history; Gasoline inventory is much higher than the upper limit of the average range for the same period of five years; Distillate oil inventory is higher than the upper limit of the average range for the same period of five years. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma increased to 66.3 million barrels, accounting for 90% of the storage capacity of the region

the trend of ethylene was strong in February, the price of naphtha remained low, and the price difference between naphtha and ethylene cracking remained strong again

the spot price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly in February and weakened at the beginning of the month, mainly due to the high inventory of petrochemicals after the return of the Spring Festival, and petrochemicals took price reduction measures to reduce inventory. At that time, most factories had not returned to the market, and traders' shipments were not smooth, and the inventory accumulated, which followed the decline. It fell again after strengthening in the last ten days. At the end of February, the spot price of LLDPE in East China was 8897 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton month on month, down 0.03% month on month. Spot prices of LDPE and HDPE also fell slightly. In February, the market price of polyethylene dollars was relatively strong

in 2015, LLDPE import profits were in a loss state for most of the time, and only in the fourth quarter, the profits were good. In February 2016, LLDPE import profits were in a breakeven state. In February 2016, affected by the Spring Festival, PE Petrochemical inventory increased significantly, and PE social inventory also increased. After the holiday, with the recovery of downstream demand, petrochemical inventory will gradually fall back

in February 2016, the spot price of LLDPE remained stable, and the upstream price remained weak. Therefore, 9. According to the measurement range required for the sample, LLDPE's profit performance was better. Due to the low price of naphtha, the profit of oil based LLDPE was significantly superior to that of coal based and methanol based LLDPE

from the perspective of the production plan of PE new devices, the early start-up time of China Coal Mengda was postponed from October 2015 to April 2016. At present, the manufacturer is still making preparations before start-up, and it is uncertain whether it can start on time. Start up and production scheduling: PE plant production 7042. Shenhua Xinjiang coal to olefins is expected to be put into operation in May 2016. The project plans to put into operation a 300000 t/a high-pressure device. This is five months after Shenhua Yulin was put into operation, another high-voltage device project was put into operation

in January and February 2016, PE plant maintenance was less, and PE production increased year-on-year and month on month. In February 2016, the domestic PE output was about 1.1992 million tons, with a total cumulative output of 2.3945 million tons. In February 2016, the output increased by 0.33% month on month and 6.61% year on year. Among them, the output of LLDPE is 555200 tons, the output of LDPE is 206900 tons, and the output of HDPE is 437100 tons

according to the customs data, PE imports in January 2016 were 750200 tons, with a month on month decrease of 6.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.94%. The total import of the whole year was 750200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.94%. LDPE imports were 180400 tons, an increase of 6.24% month on month and 0.5% year on year. This year, a total of 180400 tons, an increase of 0.5% year on year. HDPE imports were 384800 tons, a month on month decrease of 14.68%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. This year, a total of 384800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. LLDPE imported 185000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.31%, and a total of 185000 tons this year, a year-on-year decrease of 14.31%. In January 2016, PE exports were 14200 tons, with a month on month decrease of 46% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.44%

from the perspective of LLDPE's most important downstream packaging film and agricultural film enterprise startup rate, generally, the packaging film operating rate will drop significantly during the Spring Festival, and recover rapidly after the festival. In March, the packaging film enterprise operating rate will maintain a stable level. The seasonality of the operating rate of agricultural film enterprises is more obvious. March to April is the peak season for film demand, and the operating rate of agricultural film is at a higher position. Downstream demand will support PE prices

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